As with all rookies there is both excitement that they will become the next great player for one’s team combined with at least some apprehension that they will bust along with everything in between. Both scenarios play out regularly every season in the NFL. While Marshawn Lynch was clearly among the top two RBs in this draft, this draft was relatively weak in terms of RB offerings nevertheless. It is my opinion that in most other year’s drafts Lynch would have been perhaps the fourth or fifth back rated/taken vice the second.

The Wysman decided to take a look at how Lynch might fare with the Bills this season. So offensive game tapes were reviewed in the two games that California played vs. the two toughest run defenses on their schedule. After all, the NFL is laden with the best, so that’s the place to begin looking for performance and what it means, not in the litany of games vs. the scrub teams and opponents’ units that get run over by most opponents. So what were the Wysman’s observations on Lynch?

UCLA had the best run defense and USC had the best overall defense and second best run defense of the teams that Cal played. So these were the two games chosen to review given that they would be the two closest things to what Lynch will see in the NFL this season. Both teams were also conference rivals making the analysis perhaps even more meaningful. 

In the open field Lynch is not elusive and does not appear to have great moves to be able to shake defenders usually going down on or shortly after first contact. He does keep his shoulders square and facing downfield. At times he needs to keep his feet moving perhaps a little bit more than he does but he does a very good job of that generally speaking. He usually gets a good yard or two with momentum when being tackled while he’s moving forward. He’s not a big pile mover after that however. Anthony Thomas may end up seeing more goal-line and short-yardage duty than Bills fans would like to perhaps think for as long as he is on the team. After Thomas, Wright may even get the nod more often on goal-to-go situations if he ends up proving capable. Over the longer term Lynch did not strike me as the type of RB that could carry a team entirely on his own in the NFL minus a decent and bigger goal line back barring substantial improvement.

In finding holes Lynch has excellent vision and unlike McGahee accelerates forward after he very quickly assesses where the holes are. If he does end up excelling in the NFL as a rusher then his field vision will likely be what paves the way there. He seems to be able to line up a path of least resistance as it were in determining where he will run, which is a very good sign. Lynch does not seem to have that "second gear" to get him to those holes quickly enough at the second level. Further testimony to this is Lynch’s long runs in games. In 13 games his long run was greater than 30-yards only four times. His long run was 24-yards or less in 7 of 13 games. In the games vs. UCLA and USC his long runs were 14 and 17 yards respectively. The downside for him in the NFL however is that holes close up much more quickly in the NFL than in college.

He also does not possess great corner speed. Scouts seem to have been split on that, but in these two games it was evident that he struggled on the corners on the limited occasions that he ran that way. On several plays it almost seemed as if he realized that before trying to beat a single defender to the outside prior to turning it back up the middle as if he knew that he would not be able to make it around the corner. If so, then at least he realizes his limitations which is also a good thing. He does not seem to break a lot of tackles or get much yardage after first contact. If he can get into the secondary he can drag DBs along with him, but he does not seem to be able to do much vs. linemen or linebackers in that way. Shedding tackles was also rare in that way.

Lynch is not afraid to block and get in there to attempt to make blocks, but bigger defenders have little difficulty discarding him rather expediently rendering him OK or average in this category at best based on his efforts in these two games. His effectiveness and contributions in that way and on this team remain questionable. On a team without a true fullback or blocking option this could have dire consequences given a line the caliber of the Bills looking at it from a team performance perspective.

Lynch lined up at the receiving positions often and not always in the slot. He also often came back into the backfield behind the QB from that spot prior to the snap which seemed like a popular choice for Cal’s offensive coordinator. He has relatively soft hands and can make tough catches of poorly thrown balls. He does not run the best routes and doesn’t seem to know how to find the soft spots in coverage, which is odd because when running, in a fraction of a second he can find the holes, but struggles to position himself in the open areas when running routes often running right for defenders. He seems to know the route that he has to run and runs it whether there’s a slightly more advantageous adjustment or not.

He will definitely be an asset in the passing game, but primarily at the catch and not usually in space after the catch unless he’s wide open. Reggie Bush he’s clearly not.

Against UCLA Lynch faced primarily a four-man front on a D that rarely blitzed. USC brought a more complex variety of looks typically ranging between three and five man fronts relatively evenly. On a couple of occasions front-7 SC defenders caught Lynch from behind fairly easily.

Cal’s line played relatively well in both games although better against UCLA seemingly. Those two games were chosen because UCLA had easily the best rushing defense in the PAC-10 while USC was easily the best overall defense and also had the second best rushing defense. As a general note the best defenses in the PAC-10 are typically somewhat softer than they are for the best defenses in the other larger conferences such as the SEC, Big 10, or ACC, and even the Big 12 to some extent.

I tried to think of another RB that runs like Lynch in the NFL. The best that I could come up with was that Lynch is a hybrid of DeShaun Foster and Ladell Betts with a little Ronnie Harmon thrown in. He is similarly sized as the first two RBs. He is probably easier to bring down than Betts, doesn’t quite have Foster’s corner speed or second gear, and appears to be headed for a career whereby his receiving skills serve him much better than his running skills do although possessing probably somewhere in the average range of running skills. If I had to select a former Bills’ RB to contrast him with directly it would probably be Greg Bell.

Marshawn Lynch appears to be the type of RB that is a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type. What you see is what you get with Lynch. He runs hard but rarely bulls defenders over. It usually only takes one tackler to bring him down. He knows where the holes are but just doesn’t have that "second gear" to get him past the initial line of defenders with only rare exceptions. His moves and fakes are what saves him in the open field to net him his gains there but he is not elusive otherwise. If those fail in the NFL in terms of fooling defenders, then Lynch may have a tough go of life there. He has good hands making him an asset in the passing game. It is questionable how effective Lynch is in short yardage situations as well. He has good but not great or ideal size.

Lynch does not appear to improvise much. He seems to know the play and that’s exactly what he does, no more, no less.

He gets what his blocking and situations give him but not usually much more. He does not make a lot of defenders miss on his own to put that in other words. His biggest assets are his field vision which is very good, but he does not always appear to have the tools to make the most of that, along with his versatility where he does make the most of that. His line at Cal was very good and much better than the line play he will see in Buffalo raising questions as to how he will handle that. When he had a hole he ran well, when not, he didn’t. It was pretty much that simple. There is no need to remind fans that NFL defenders will be much quicker and faster than those on the SC and UCLA defenses.

As a result, Bills fans can expect Lynch to be as good as his line is, which unfortunately is a dicey proposition. At Cal it was good. In Buffalo it will not be relatively speaking for both. Even so, it is very difficult to imagine that Lynch is not going to at least be able to match McGahee’s level of play almost immediately as McGahee did not even do the simplest of requisite things at all that Lynch does well, namely simply running forward upon getting the ball. In the open field the two RBs are very comparable. Neither is going to be a threat to go 75-yards for a TD with the odds of getting caught from behind by much faster players being good. The biggest difference between the two is probably that McGahee sidesteps laterally looking for a hole or while waiting for one to develop while Lynch identifies the hole, if there is one, otherwise he goes for the biggest crack of daylight and moves forward immediately regardless.

If Lynch were to start immediately for the Bills behind their line, which likely will not happen from game one although it should early in the season, and used in a rotation which will likely be the case, a reasonable expectation for a full 16-game season as a rookie in the NFL as a best-case scenario would perhaps be 600-800 yards on 3.8- 4.0 yards-per-carry, 4-5 TDs, along with another 40-50 catches for 300-400 yards and 2-4 TDs there. He did not strike me as the type of RB that will do much beyond the very ordinary in general in terms of rushing and may struggle vs. the tougher running defenses in the NFL. As with many players, he may post fine games against the lower end rushing defenses.

He should see plenty of utility in the passing game for the Bills. Steve Fairchild is clearing attempting to recreate the Rams style offense in Buffalo absolutely requiring a significant receiving threat out of the backfield. Anthony Thomas will not provide that caliber a receiving threat from the backfield.

There was no impression given that fans looking for Lynch to become "the next Thurman Thomas" will see their expectations there come to pass. Lynch will need to work hard at the next level if he is going to be much more than a very average rusher. He is well-rounded however to be sure, but he does not appear good enough to be able to overcome poor line play. Whether the Bills can put up good line play remains to be seen, but at this point in time fans’ expectations for the middle to right side of the line should not be set too high.

Once Lynch reaches steady state, the impression that I was left with was one that Lynch might regularly hover around the 1,000-yard 4.0-4.2 yard-per-carry mark but rarely do much better as the primary ball carrier, but that he should be able to log 400-600 receiving yards in any given season if used properly in such a role. 1,400-1,600 yard total-yardage seasons are the best that I can see coming from Lynch in a best case scenario assuming he gets lots of receiving reps. It is conceivable that he might log 1,200 rushing yards behind a top OL if he were ever to play for such a team, a team like the Colts for example in a division with two defenses the likes of Houston or Tennessee.  Otherwise the all-around "good at everything great at nothing" aspect to his play should define him. 

In a worst case scenario I see Lynch as being a backup caliber rusher that contributes as a RB capable of playing in a relief role or in a dual RB offense primarily as a receiving threat. Much depends upon coaching, system, offensive line, and opportunities. Whether the Bills are ideal for him or not is highly questionable. Then again, whether the Bills are ideal for any player is highly questionable.  Lynch does not strike me as the type of RB carrying the full-time load in a system similar to that of the Rams, the likes of which the Bills will clearly deploy this fall. This will be particularly true behind the Bills’ current offensive line.

Unfortunately I did not see too much evidence that he would be all that much better than Thomas in rushing with Thomas perhaps ending up being the better of the two RBs this season insofar as only rushing goes. It should therefore not surprise anyone if Thomas ends up being the better ball carrier. As a receiver he should be better than Thomas by a substantial margin and his versatility there will add value at least in that way.

Perhaps the biggest questions for Lynch is how rapidly he will improve and whether or not he picks up additional skills or perhaps just hones the ones that he has. All in all I see a very average rusher tops but an above average receiver out of the backfield. Otherwise only the season will reveal what the Bills have in Lynch.

Expect the rushing performance of the Bills to be marginally better than it was last season, which was not good. Fairchild will have his hands full attempting to best figure out how utilize the two backs, Thomas and Lynch, since both have different skill sets somewhat. If Wright gets worked into the mix it merely adds another Anthony Thomas type back into the mix. So should Lynch not become the best rusher on the team then Fairchild’s offense may not even be capable of flying before it ever even gets off the ground. Certainly there isn’t anywhere else to look to draw heat from for the RBs besides Lee Evans. Shifting the three backs in and out would then in that case more or less telegraph the type of play to be run or force the Bills to use non-optimal players otherwise on some plays.

If Lynch on the other hand somehow manages to become the best RB on the team from a rushing standpoint, then the Bills will be all set and will likely see a significant uptick from their last season’s bottom-four or five rushing offense. The degree of improvement will be directly proportional to both line play combined with to what extent Lynch provides what the team currently does not possess. If not then this season should prove to be extremely interesting from a "how’s Fairchild going to run it" perspective. It’s pretty clear that he’s not going to get much offensive mentoring from Jauron.

The Wysman sees further problems however. Enough was not viewed in those games on the part of Lynch to convince me that Lynch will offer much more than what the Bills have seen in recent seasons from a rushing perspective. Given that they plan on using more one-back sets, the choice for Fairchild may come down to putting a receiving back in there (Lynch) or the team’s best rusher which may very well still be Thomas.

As a side note on Dwayne Wright, anyone expecting much there will in all likelihood be disappointed. Once again, completely ignore statements made on camp performances. If those meant more than the ether that they occupy then this team would have posted winning seasons since ’00.

Wright played against only two top-50 rushing defenses. LSU where he played awfully averaging less than three yards-per-carry and had 42 yards, and Boise State where he played well, but far from great, and let’s be real here, Boise State’s rushing defense is largely overrated contrasted with others among the top ranks as they play in the WAC where there really were no strong rushing teams. Wright has no moves or speed worthy of note rendering him essentially a lesser version of Anthony Thomas.

Outside of Dockery, a substantial improvement in one single position while only a marginal improvement on the line unit as a whole, the sole impetus for the improvement of the Bills’ offense otherwise rests with Lynch. While a tremendous burden to be placed upon the shoulders of a single player, a rookie no less, perhaps too weighty an onus, the extent to which the offense improves will be directly proportional to what Lynch brings to the O that the team does not currently possess.

Should the O not improve by much or at all, then the D will assuredly not make up any delta only providing a further hurdle to overcome in matching last season’s 7-9 mark. So if Lynch isn’t all that and a bag of chips, then there will not be much cause for hope for these Bills in ’07 or ’08.

mweiler@afceastreport.com