Fairchild’s Living in the Past Will Cost Bills
By Mark Weiler
June 18th, 2007
While the Bills originally insisted last year that they were not in fact attempting to "redo" the Rams’ offense here in Buffalo, largely due to Jauron’s hiring of former Ram offensive coordinator Steven Fairchild, Fairchild’s signature is all over the current Bills’ offense and more so now in year two. This once again may be a case of style over substance however which would threaten to derail any plans that the team has of producing an effective offense. Why? Precisely because this team does not have the talent to run a Rams-style offense.
Much as was laid out in my three-part Coaches Do What They Know Best series in June of ’06, so too this has played out offensively speaking too. And why not? Typically when hiring a coach one should attempt to match up a coach with the talent that a football team has along with the direction in which they want to go. It is doubtful that the Bills did it that way and for that reason, but that really isn’t the point of this piece.
The point of the piece is to contrast the methodology which is forming, and which is looking an awful lot like the Rams’ way of doing business offensively, as well as to reconcile that methodology, or system if you will, with the talent that the Bills have and whether or not things match up in that way or not. This then therefore would either validate the offensive direction of this team or conversely raise some questions regarding the same.
What first raised a flag on this was the Bills’ strategy in this draft. The RB strategy established, whether intentional or not, and one must often ask this question when analyzing the Bills, is one of a "non-traditional" variety. The most immediate problem with this strategy is that the Bills’ offensive line is really not made for a non-traditional offense. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. It is specifically suited to running a traditional NFL Pro Set or I formation even. Perhaps more generally speaking a simple grind-it-out smashmouth running type of offense predicated on wearing down opposing defenses and pounding the ball up-the-middle.
And while perhaps more suited to running this style of offense, that is not to say that it is ideally suited to do so given the potential extraordinary weakness from center to the right side of the line in this way. Either way, the Bills’ current OL most certainly is not built to provide Rams-like pass protection or run blocking to be sure.
The Bills’ linemen are big and have as almost sole strengths in a vacuum otherwise their ability to "move the pile" and block at the initial level and pave the way for RBs to gain yards up-the-middle with the passing game playing off of that. In order to run such an offense one typically needs a reliable, proven, and above average fullback and hopefully one capable of running the ball himself.
The Bills have no such player however. The one player brought on specifically to block, or at least partially, was Derek Schouman, one of the team’s 7th round draftees. The problem there is that Schouman’s weaknesses are blocking in that way, in a traditional role suited to more traditional FB style blocking. Questions regarding his durability also exist due to perennial injury issues at Boise State.
So the Bills very clearly are not moving towards a grind-it-out smashmouth rushing game for the simple reason that they do not have the talent on the roster and depth chart to pull that off. Also, and as such, Marshawn Lynch, perhaps with Anthony Thomas as well, are pretty much set to operate out of the backfield on their own and therefore presumably out of single-back sets often.
For anyone having done their homework on the Bills’ linemen brought on this offseason, their strengths are run blocking at the first level, not the second, and not in pass blocking. As such, if the team had matched their available talent and their offensive system, they would have designed the offense to operate out of a traditional NFL style offense predicated on a "smashmouth" running game. Not surprisingly they did not do that.
As such, the team is clearly on a path to attempt to duplicate the Rams style offense, which under Fairchild often did not even start a FB and often utilized a one-back set. While this may sound exciting and fun-thinking, even if momentarily and while dozing off into fantasy world, it is not practical for the Bills. Why not?
First of all, the Bills as pointed out numerous times in this piece as well as others going back to the acquisitions of Dockery and Walker and in pre-draft analyses, the Bills simply do not have the offensive line talent to pull it off. With an offense such as the one clearly taking shape here, pass protection is critical.
Indeed, while Fairchild was the offensive coordinator in St. Louis, even if only a figurehead in that way as many suggest, the Rams were among the passingest teams in the league ranking an average 4th in attempts from ’03 to ’05. They were also the least balanced team offensively from pass-to-run during that time frame as well. This has been pointed out here since his having been hired on with the Bills.
In spite of team statements last year that the team would be more run oriented, as the saying goes, don’t listen to what they say, watch what they do.
How is this team going to become more run oriented with only one huge question mark at a FB position by a 7th round draftee from a second tier school that faced little top collegiate competition and a player that did not even play that same role in college? It may, but again, going with the "odds" here if the Bills are to become a rushing oriented team as the brass spoon fed the sheep last year, then the onus for it will likely have to be Marshawn Lynch and the existing Bills’ OL. A show of hands, how many believe that it will unfold as such and without significant issues.
Again, it may, and frankly we all hope that it does. But this team isn’t going to face practice squad players in a t-shirt and shorts environment this fall. They will be facing NFL defenses, many of which were among the league’s top rushing defenses last season. In fact, three of their first four games are against teams ranked among the league’s top-12 last season in rushing defense. Starting of 1-3 or even 0-4 is not going to bode well or provide encouragement for a team desperately looking for positives immediately this fall in the second season which will hopefully validate the Ivy League Dynamic Duo’s methodologies.
In the Wysman’s opinion it would perhaps have been much wiser to have drafted a nice between-the-tackles type of rusher at much less resource and cash consumption tiding the team over until a richer draft regarding RB availability came about. It will be difficult not to surpass this season’s RB class in future drafts as the ’06 draft was all but limited to Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch as standout players, yet both with some concerns/issues. Frankly, Lynch’s collegiate statistics pale in contrast with some of the standout RBs from other year draft classes. This of course is not at all to speculate anything one way or another.
What is safe to suggest however, given the mix of factors mentioned above, is that this team is likely not headed towards the tough running game that they stated they wanted last season. If that is their goal then they have certainly done themselves a tremendous disservice by not grabbing a solid and reliable blocking option out of the backfield this offseason.
The "part II" of this is the Bills’ cadre of WRs. Peerless Price has proven what most fans already knew, that namely the team overpaid him by every dollar he got beyond veteran minimum and a $25K signing bonus. He’s also a "spent" player now with a limited skill set in being a flyer only for the most part, yet with forthwith diminishing speed. Roscoe Parrish is an arm-tackler’s dream and has also not panned out to match the expectations placed on him by the same personnel office that was responsible for drafting him yet which is still in place. The upside for Parrish is minimal.
Josh Reed has been bigger than in most places right here, but my current sentiment is that while built like a brick outhouse, Reed in five seasons has proven little beyond being merely a role-playing slot option for the team averaging just over 500 yards, less than 2 TDs, and fewer than 12 yards-per-catch in five seasons. At present he has a QB that struggles to play a solid short-medium game such as would take advantage of Reed’s skills in such a way. My hopes of Reed becoming a top second WR have now faded into a realization that he is what he is as just expressed. If the Bills can get more from him, great. But there is little reason to expect it unless Losman really finds his short-medium game in spades this fall. While the Wysman holds out hope that he does, it is far from a given.
Regardless, this line that the Bills have is far from the OL that the Rams had under Fairchild with stout and reliable linemen such as Orlando Pace, Adam Timmerman, and Andy McCollum to name a few. The Bills also possess no RB like Marshall Faulk or more recently Steven Jackson. Sure, Lynch my be that RB, but the "chicken or the egg" argument quickly comes to mind. Perhaps Faulk and Jackson are "Faulk" and "Jackson" due to the Rams’ exceptional offensive line. Particularly since Tomlinson, Johnson, and other top NFL RBs have at least average or better offensive lines while formerly superlative RBs such as Edgerin James played even worse than McGahee did behind a line comparable to what the Bills have.
Fans can make their own extrapolations there. Furthermore however, the Bills after Lee Evans simply do not possess the receiving talent in their WR corps that the Rams have in past seasons and during Fairchild’s oversight. The Rams had Holt and Bruce as keystones as well throughout their "Rams style offense" era. Evans is perhaps half of that equation or so, but the other receivers that the Rams have had all overshadow most of what the Bills have after Evans in spades.
Lastly, to run a Rams style offense one needs a QB that is prone to throwing a solid short-medium game. Last season, of Torry Holt’s 10 TDs, only one was over 22 yards. Contrast that with Evans who caught 8 TDs with six of the eight having been from 37-yards or greater. Contrary to what anyone might think about the Rams’ offense, namely that they may heave deep balls for scoring on passing plays, the truth is to the contrary. They are good at moving the ball and have a QB, line, RBs, WRs, and coaching that can function well in tight spaces in the red zone.
Of Bulger’s 24 TD passes last season, 21 were from within the red zone, (87.5%) only two (2) were from 40-yards out or beyond. (8.3%) Contrast that with Losman, who of 19 TD passes, only 8, (42.1%), well below half, were within the red zone. Seven (7) of 19 were from 40 yards out or beyond (36..8%), which is nearly an equal percentage.
Also correspondingly, last season the Bills’ went to the red zone tied for second last with the Raiders at 35 times and ahead of only the Panthers who logged 32 trips. The Rams were 6th in trips with nearly then again 20 at 54. The Rams were also 8th in converting for TDs from the red zone on a percentage basis while the Bills were 26th. There are reasons for those statistics, contrary to what the team and it’s brain trust may think.
So unfortunately for the Bills, they are the opposite of the Rams. They were ranked dead last last year in ability to move the ball and were not a good red zone team and on the opposite end of the spectrum, exactly, as the Rams. The Rams were ranked 8th last season in red zone performance while the Bills were ranked 7th from last.
Whether Fairchild can put it all together remains to be seen. But once again, it all boils down to talent. Contrasting the talent that the Rams have had with that that the Bills now have is an exercise in futility and a lost cause before that plane even gets on the runway for attempted takeoff. But hey, stranger things have happened I suppose. Keep your money in your pocket on this however if you are a gambling person.
Given the Bills sad defense, it would have been in their best interests to have drafted some more linemen on both sides and perhaps picked up a RB such as Tony Hunt in an attempt to get more for their "draft dollar" than they did, particularly in selecting a bunch of backups and role players after Lynch and Posluszny. They could have then designed an offense around controlling the clock and limiting the offensive opportunities of the opponents this season.
Instead, the offense seems to be shaping up to be more of a passing team with far less grind-it-out rushing ability than they should have planned for thereby feeding right into the hands of opponents. Instead of chewing up clock and attempting to limit the drives of opponents, a team, the Bills, that already ranked dead last in plays run and third last in time-of-possession has now merely pushed themselves towards regressing further in that way in spite of their really not being much space for them to regress. After all, by throwing the ball more, whether to the RBs (Lynch) or to the receivers otherwise, they do not aid in their cause to control the clock, unless of course they can move the ball consistently that way. They were entirely unable to do that last season as evidenced by the statistical facts of their play. So hopes for a 180 in that way are incredibly dim.
The onus for this team doing anything this fall befalls the offense almost entirely due to the sheer and utter lack of experience or talent on the defense this fall. The defense figures to get pushed around something fierce paving the way for long, time-consuming drives as the cover-2 limits the deep passes yet while not having the talent to halt the short-medium passing game or opposing rushing games, thereby yielding long drives of many plays to our opponents.
If the Bills offense cannot match and do the same, then it will be like the one-way teeth of a python that only allow something within its grasp to move one way, into its mouth. They will be forced to pass, which if that fails, will yield the ball to the opponents more quickly not leading to the team doing the same while they are on offense. It will be a vicious cycle as it were to the detriment of the Bills.
Forget the notion that of the many opponents that the Bills play, most have solid offenses and may very well be up by the half thereby forcing the Bills to throw anyway. It’s just not a good recipe for success. But hey, we’ll see. Perhaps this is the season that the Wysman bellies up to an all-u-can-eat crow buffet. Doubtful, but who knows. Some hope must be present before the season begins as scant as the basis for it is however.
Perhaps it is just time to stick one’s head in the sand in an "ignorance is bliss" way and to not take this team too seriously. While the fan part of me may be able to do that, the analyst part of me must continue to call the realities of it all.
