By Mark Weiler

September 28th, 2006

After three weeks in the NFL the AFC East is already looking like the NFC West has in past recent seasons. The Patriots all of a sudden look mortal; the Dolphins are looking far more the 5-11 team than the 11-5 team that everyone had them penciled in as; the Jets are actually doing more with less as perhaps the division’s most efficient team; while the Bills have proven absolutely no improvement over last season in most regards, for certain in the most pertinent regards evident most particularly in their inability of the offense to score.

The Titans are the only team outside the division that an AFCE team has beaten to date. Clearly that will change, but it is telling especially considering that the Dolphins barely beat the Titans. Either way, the perceptions on the Bills early success are fading like the whitewash on a freshly painted fence during a thunderstorm. The preseason luster on Miami has faded like a freshly cut flower left out in the hot desert sun for 24 hours. The Patriots appear to be respected but no longer feared as it were. The Jets appear to be the only team meeting or exceeding expectations, as low as they may have been, from the onset of the season.

After three divisional games resulting in a relatively predictable 1-2 both league and division, the team now prepares for three games of non-divisional play vs. NFCN teams.

The Bills’ second-rate receivers vs. a solid Viking secondary: Bills’ receivers have largely struggled to get open for stretches giving Losman few options. The signing of Peerless Price was as laughable and dumb as it seemed to critics in hindsight with Price’s sole legacy shaping up to be "why?" Price is presently on pace for a 450 yard 0 TD season.

Vikes DT Pat Williams vs. Bills RG Chris Villarrial: This matchup of 33-year olds should be interesting. Villarrial has not had a good season to date in what is shaping up as his last with the Bills for performance reasons if the team is smart. Williams brings somewhat of an axe to grind which isn’t good for the Bills’ OL weak link.

Bills OL vs. a strong Vikes DL: This line led the Vikes to hold a hot Chicago offense to only four FGs through 58 minutes of play with the late Bears’ TD coming off of a defensive set-up. Will the Bills fare better with a worse offense that can’t find the end zone from the red zone as it is vs. much weaker Ds?

A Bills’ DL that has not shown an ability to control the line-of-scrimmage vs. an OL and RB that have played decently against some of the best defenses in the entire league. How will they fare vs. the Bills’ fundamentally poor DL?

The Vikings offensive balance vs. a fundamentally unsound Bills’ D: In the New England game Brady imploded entirely for a complete half of play. In the Miami game Culpepper struggled all game long. Last week the Jets brought their second-to-last ranked rushing yards-per-carry offense to the Ralph. This week a relatively balanced Viking offense presents the Bills with a challenge. Barring a Brad Johnson implosion it likely will not have beneficial results.

A Bills’ coaching staff vs. their faulty perceptions of how good their team really is: The Bills can ill afford to be taking risks and chances when points are there for the taking. The Bills are not a fundamentally good enough football team to be going for it on 4th downs when a FG is possible under normal circumstances, much less with a lead;

to be sitting McGahee in favor of a second-rate Thomas on key rushing plays;

to be rotating players that are not as good as the starters in and out in favor of "freshness" when the team is simply struggling to find solid play in most positions;

to be using trick plays, etc.

The Bills need to take points when they can and dispense with the chicanery.

Then again, those attune to the issues of this team realize fully that the "chicanery," which includes a gross overemphasis on stunts defensively, is an attempt to mask the fact that the Bills have few, if any besides Schobel, linemen on either side of the ball that are capable of out-executing their opponents mano-a-mano consistently throughout a game. Once again, line domination is what wins games. Yet the Bills have yet another administration attempting to make it work from the skill positions inward. Oy Vey! When will it all end!

Willis McGahee vs. the Vikes’ DL: Can McGahee do something besides chalk up yardage between the 20s? If so then this is a good game to begin proving that. To date Willis is about as unreliable as they come inside the red zone and in goal-to-go situations. His stutter step is ever present and continues to lose the team yards, even if only a few here and there.

The Vikings enter this game coming off of three games vs. three of last season’s most stringent defenses, namely the Skins, Panthers, and Bears. So this game will provide a welcome breath of relief from the Vikes perspective. The Vikings appear to be shaping up as one of the league’s unexpected success stories thus far on the season. Fans having taken this game as a "should win" will likely be disappointed.

The Bills will likely face the most well rounded offense that they’ll have seen to date barring a Brad Johnson implosion. Chester Taylor is running well this season and offers a dual threat out of the Vikes’ backfield. While the Vike receivers aren’t in position to take the annual post-season trip to Hawaii, they are more than capable of exploiting the Bills pass defense and its sloppy coverage. 38-year old Brad Johnson is underrated and generally very efficient having turned his best seasons with the Vikings over the years. His age likely won’t be an issue this early in the season. Should the Vikes need to resort to backups rookie Tarvaris Jackson or Brooks Bollinger, it might give the Bills what they need to win this one.

The Bills enter this game with a tainted win over the struggling Dolphins in hindsight along with some very dubious game-day leadership and few on-field leaders. The Bills will likely not win the line battles in this game either. As more film of Fairchild’s offense becomes available it stands to reason that opponents will enter games more prepared. Less is known about the Vikes as well who are also "under new management."

The Bills also enter this game with a disappointing turn-of-events for their home opener last week and teetering on the brink of early season criticism as the promises of the new regime now hang in the balance on the brink of needing defense and a "further explanations" as each game comes and goes. Will the Bills rebound well from a home opening loss? If so, can they bring it vs. a seemingly above average Vikings team?

Ex-Bills Pat Williams and Nate Clements will also be looking to "make a point" in their return to their former stomping grounds. The opportunity is golden for both of them with the Bills not possessive of one lineman capable of handling the large and powerful although aged Williams and with Winfield (or Smoot) likely matching up against a handful of #2/3 WRs after Evans. Darren Sharper is also a solid safety posing other problems for Losman and the air game. Big money signing Price is playing like a waiver wire candidate dropping catchable key balls, not being able to get open, committing penalties, etc.

The luster and sheen has partially come off of this Bills team with the team several more pre-bye-week losses away from the sheen being off altogether. The coaching staff only three games into five-year contracts and their first season are already being called into question and for good reason.

Sadly, that will continue with Bills fans likely realizing down the stretch this season that Levy sold them yet another bill-of-goods regarding the coaching staff, again, to remind being a former failed head coach and two coordinators without much track record at the next level at all. The sad fact is that the things that characterize the biggest shortcomings of this Jauron team are the same as those that characterized his failed Bears teams. Should this be a surprise? Should fans expect that to change going forward?

The interesting thing is that one can determine, at least partially, what a coach’s onfield strategy will be based on their overall philosophy in staffing a team. If the latter is flawed, as it is with the Bills, then so too will tactical management of games be. Indeed it is.

The offense is floundering, the defense can only distinguish itself with aid from an opponent’s offense, namely their QB doing his best to hand the game to the Bills. The defense is a house-of-cards simply awaiting the first big gust, which may very well be this weekend. At least it can look good performing poorly fundamentally. The Bills’ D is fast, but in the wrong direction. Fast needs to be to the ball and to the QB, not laterally consuming time as plays develop. Sadly, the Bills do not have one defensive lineman capable of just plowing through or bowling over opposing linemen. Not one. Aaron Schobel goes around and does it quite effectively. After that, nada!

Home or away, and pending injury circumstances, the Wysman simply cannot select the Bills to win any more games against teams that appear to be average or better. Against teams seemingly heading for the bottom third they may get a nod here. Detroit on the road in two more weeks will be that next team. But until the Bills’ offense puts up more than 13 or so points without the aid of prevent Ds or other assorted defensive anomalies, the Wysman simply cannot predict much more than this 17 vs. what figures to be a formidable defensive opponent as well.

This is a home game, so we’ll factor in one big play touchdown one way or another, another TD by the O at some point, and a field goal as well. That may be generous for Fairchild’s "new and improved" "this time it’ll be different" offense that has been utterly ineffective in terms of fundamentally moving the ball generally speaking but clearly and terminally ineffective in red zone performance.

The Vikes have better talent than the Bills do in most positions. The bottom line is that their lines are both superior to the Bills’ lines. That will once again be the delta here in this one. It’s a recurrent theme in spite of not being picked up on by the Bills’ braintrust.

mweiler@afceastreport.com